Lots to say about this latest ARG poll (via vt.Buzz), but one thing is starkly clear.

If Welch and Parker want to win, they must convince Democrats, yes Democrats, to vote for them.

If you’re only pulling two-thirds of your own party, you are in serious trouble.

Vermont US Senate
If the general election for US Senate were being held today between Bernard Sanders, the Independent, Rich Tarrant, the Republican, and Pete Diamondstone, of the Liberty Union Party, for whom would you vote - Sanders, Tarrant, or Diamondstone? (names rotated)
9/14/06 Sanders Tarrant Diamondstone Undecided
Voters 55% 40% 1% 4%
Republicans (28%) 12% 86% - 2%
Democrats (29%) 81% 14% - 5%
Independents (43%) 65% 27% 3% 5%
7/27/06 56% 35% * 9%
Vermont US Congress
If the general election for US Congress were being held today between Martha Rainville, the Republican, Peter Welch, the Democrat, and Jane Newton, of the Liberty Union Party, for whom would you vote - Rainville, Welch, or Newton? (names rotated)
9/14/06 Rainville Welch Newton Undecided
Voters 45% 48% 2% 5%
Republicans (28%) 81% 16% - 3%
Democrats (29%) 25% 66% - 9%
Independents (43%) 35% 56% 4% 5%
7/27/06 42% 41% * 16%
Vermont Governor
If the general election for governor were being held today between Jim Douglas, the Republican, Scudder Parker, the Democrat, and Bob Skold, of the Liberty Union Party, for whom would you vote - Douglas, Parker, or Skold? (names rotated)
9/14/06 Douglas Parker Skold Undecided
Voters 59% 32% 2% 7%
Republicans (28%) 94% 4% - 2%
Democrats (29%) 28% 65% - 7%
Independents (43%) 56% 28% 5% 11%
7/27/06 47% 36% 1% 15%
* - Less than .5 percent
Based on 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely voters in Vermont on September 13 and 14, 2006. The theoretical margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time.